South African grain and oilseed farmers are advised to plant on time so that by the start of next year, the crop was in its growing stages, the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) said.
The organisation said that while the country's western regions typically planted from mid-November to the end of December, they thought that starting the planting as soon as possible would be ideal, so that the crop has a more extended growing period before the El Niño-induced lower rainfall period in these regions.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said they continue to receive additional evidence that the 2023/24 summer crop season may not be as harsh as some may have feared when discussing the El Niño prospects.
"For example, on October 31, the South African Weather Service (SAWS), in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, noted that "multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for the north-east of the country during Nov-Dec-Jan (NDJ), Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) and Jan-Feb-Mar (JFM) with below normal rainfall predicted for the central and south-western parts of the country."
"Predictions still favour above-normal rainfall conditions over the northeastern parts of the country, even with an El Niño in place.," SAWS added.
He said considering that the soil moisture was excellent across most regions of the country from the past rainy seasons, the possibilities of favourable rainfall through to early next year meant that South Africa could have a reasonably better summer crop season in 2023/24.
The economist said this recent update was slightly different from the message the SAWS shared in the previous month, where there were prospects of dryness were from the start of next year.
This most recent update spoke of good rains through to February next year in the northeastern regions of South Africa.
"This means favourable rains could also cover the pollination stages of the summer crop, where moisture is needed the most, and thus lead to better yields."
"Additionally, while the central and western regions could see below-normal rainfall from the start of 2024, the crop could still be in better condition. We base this view on the fact that soil moisture would be healthy, having benefited from rains through to the end of the year, adding to better moisture levels from the past rainy seasons."
Agbiz said from now on, they would watch rainfall and temperature conditions across the country. It said that with regards to temperature, SAWS noted that "minimum and maximum temperatures were expected to be mostly above-normal countrywide for the forecast period.
Having observed the scorching temperatures in the northern hemisphere and the negative impact on agriculture in their recent summer season, temperature would require constant monitoring in South Africa as the season continued.
Sihlobo said that overall, weather prospects continued to paint an encouraging picture about the 2023/24 summer crop season, and the farmers would likely respond by lifting their planting area as they have signalled already.
"We commented mainly on grains and oilseeds, but the improved weather conditions will benefit all agricultural sub-sectors, thus boding well for growth and food production," said Sihlobo.