Durban - Energy experts have attributed Stage 6 load shedding to planned maintenance and unplanned breakdowns at Eskom’s power stations.
The power utility announced on Tuesday that Stage 6 load shedding would be implemented indefinitely.
Ruse Moleshe, managing director for Rubk, an energy and infrastructure consulting and advisory company, said Eskom had unreliable power plants.
“We have plants that break down frequently, take time to be brought back online and there is also increased planned maintenance. This has to take place during the summer period, when electricity demand is relatively lower than in winter. Many of the supply side interventions that the Energy Action Plan had envisaged would help alleviate the problem have not materialised yet.”
Moleshe added that some of those projects were likely to come online in the 2024/2025 financial year.
“Private sector projects take time to develop. Kusile, Medupi and Koeberg units, which are not supplying power to the grid, make the situation worse. We have not been able to procure sufficient power from the Standard Offer and Regional Power programmes.”
Moleshe said significant additional capacity was urgently needed to have a credible system.
She said the government was preoccupied with fixing short-term load shedding challenges, without formulating a long-term perspective and proactive stance on energy planning going forward.
“We are likely to experience a short-term reprieve by bringing back lost capacity but we will experience challenges again when we upgrade or modernise/ retrofit old plants with gas.
“We need significant new capacity, over and above the returning of plants that are not on stream right now,” Moleshe said.
Lungile Mashele, an energy economist, said maintenance was the only way to fix the units.
“However, one has to consider the age of the plants, availability of equipment, skills and the money required. At a previous press briefing the minister of electricity indicated that the money was there as well as the correct project management which would ensure reduced outages.
“The maintenance programme only started in earnest a few weeks ago so they should be given time to execute their planned maintenance, which will take a few months before showing any positive results.”
Mashele said more load shedding was on the cards.
“South Africans should brace themselves for increased load shedding as a result of the increased maintenance, increased industrial demand and warmer temperatures which affect plant performance.
“As we head into an El Niño season which is characterised by hotter and drier weather, it is not yet known how this will impact on plant performance as well as electricity demand.”
Energy expert, Professor Wikus van Niekerk of Stellenbosch University said Eskom does not have sufficient generation capacity to meet demand.