International oil prices are rising again, but this development is unlikely to put too much of a damper on South Africa’s expected fuel price relief for April.
Current indications are pointing to a petrol price decrease falling in the range between 72 cents and 85 cents, with diesel dropping by around 93 cents, unaudited data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows.
This is largely due to weaker international oil prices earlier in the month, with Brent Crude having fallen below the $70 per barrel (R1,286) mark earlier in March, for the first time in six months.
This week, Brent has been testing the $73 mark, following Donald Trump’s renewed threats to impose tariffs on Venezuelan oil importers.
This reflects the market’s pricing in of potentially reduced Venezuelan supplies as well as diminishing demand for the sanctioning source, says Ahmad Assiri, Research Strategist at Pepperstone.
However, oil prices are unlikely to inch significantly higher, given the current economic uncertainties.
ALSO READ: How South Africa’s fuel prices fluctuated in 2024, and what 2025 is likely to bring
“An easing of inflationary pressures, combined with improved consumer sentiment, could boost spending confidence, driving oil prices into the mid-seventies range,” Assiri said.
“However, this optimistic outlook is clouded by the unpredictability of tariff headlines, which can change daily, posing an incredible challenge in forecasting price movements as the market anticipates 'Liberation Day' on April 2nd.”
From that date, any country purchasing petroleum products from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff on all products exported to the US, Trump announced on his ‘Truth’ social media platform on Monday.
His grudge against Venezuela stems from the accusation that the country has “purposefully and deceitfully" sent tens of thousands of criminals and gang members to the US.
The US President has referred to April 2 as ‘Liberation Day’ for the country, marking the deadline for many international tariffs to take effect. However, many analysts believe that a significantly reduced batch of tariffs will be announced, with Trump also recently stating that he may give “a lot of countries breaks.”
April's predicted fuel price decreases will come as a welcome reprieve for South Africans, with this month’s modest seven-cent petrol price cut having followed four consecutive months of increases.
A litre of 95 Unleaded currently costs R21.55 at the coast and R22.34 inland, with 93 Unleaded pegged at R22.09.
International oil markets have experienced a volatile start to 2025 amid all the uncertainties presented by Donald Trump’s US presidency.
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