Dr. Ashraf Patel
South Africa hosts the G20 summit in a period of acute geopolitical storms.
Billed as an African G20 for Africa, this vision is dissipating amidst several crises mainly Trump 2.0, the various conflicts in Africa - DRC, Sudan and South Sudan and the lack of a resolution to the African debt crisis.
The numbers are staggering.
As of 2021, Africa’s external debt had skyrocketed to $824 billion, with many countries spending over 60% of their GDP servicing these loans. In 2025 alone, Africa is projected to spend $74 billion on debt repayments – money that could instead fund schools, hospitals, and roads.
Within the African context, Africa’s median public debt ratio has been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of this decade from 54.5% of GDP in 2019, to 64% in 2020, moving to around 63.5% from 2021–23 ( Africa Economic Outlook 2024 report.
In 2024, the US provided US$453 million (R8.5 billion) in direct funding to South Africa under PEPFAR. Trump's decision to cut US funds to South Africa comes just one week after Trump announced a freeze on all foreign aid. The crisis is compounded by the rapid dismantling of USAID and ending US funding for SAs Just Energy Transition JET. AGOAs future is now vulnerable.
The multilateral and global governance landscape (WTO, UN etc.) has become more volatile, uncertain, fragmented, and complex, characterised by disruptive trade, growing protectionism, environmental degradation due to climate change; and increasing inequalities between rich and poor countries.
This dystopian reality is tragic given that the UN Pact of the Future 2024 committed states to support the UN Sustainable Development Agenda and save Multilateralism.
The African continent faces a rapidly changing global environment whose systemic dimensions have major implications for the future of Africa’s growth and development, especially its integration agenda under the Agenda 2063 and the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Africa’s development prospects have also been undermined by slow progress in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Trump 2.0 is a current and present danger with many bombastic policy orders that have targeted long-standing international economic frameworks such as open trade and Development Aid. Immediate tariffs and the abrupt ending of USAID funding and PEPFAR funding to Africa will have major consequences for African nations and NGOs. A silver lining is that this can push South Africa and Africa towards self-reliance.
If Trump 2.0 and Pepfar cuts were a shock, the EU and UK announced a week later ‘new development policies rooted in national interests and a war economy posture.'
Not to be undone, in the same week at the G20 finance ministers meeting, the UK Chancellor of Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced its 'cutting of foreign aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) to increase its defence spending because of new threats to Europe since Russia invaded Ukraine.'
The Tsunami wave of development cuts – like a UEFA football competition is now flowing to Germany. Just two weeks after being elected, Chancellor Frederick Merz and key partners the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the Greens jointly announced a new mega EURO 500 billion Infrastructure & Defence package.
For the Global South, this tide is clear.
This is taking place against the backdrop of rising inequality, deepening climate crisis with less commitments to climate finance, and the African debt crisis which extracts $800 Billion per annum in interest in loans alone.
While South Africa is spending considerable financial and diplomatic effort on the G20, in terms of international relations norms and law, it is an elite forum, with no power of agreements. G20 Communiques are painstaking in reaching consensus and have no legal basis. And this year, the US administration may skip it altogether.
So, what is to be done?
In historical epochs and moments, this poly-crisis is multidimensional and will shape the new international order in the next quarter century, Developing South nations such as South Africa, India, Brazil, Indonesia, et al now stand at a crossroads in the international order. It can take a pathway of sub-imperialism and play a subservient role in global affairs, or take a firm position in favour of the Global South and Africa in particular.
The African continent faces multiple civil wars and interstate conflicts- much more than the wild 1980s and early 1990s. Here South Africa and reliable partners in SADC and AU et al should play the role of an honest broker and peacemakers in conflicts in the Sudan, DRC, Mozambique, Sahel, Libya et al. There can be no development without peace.
Another area for South Africa to prioritise is the G77 agenda especially regarding fair trade and an inclusive multilateral order. The last G77 communique were clear on the the full commitment to multilateralism and the search for a more just and equitable international economic system that offers opportunities to raise the standard of living of our peoples. (G77 Communique, September 2024)
The G77 group should in terms of objective reality be more of a priority simply as the vast majority of South Africa’s own population suffer the fate that of the G77 nations.
In a world moving decisively towards multipolarity and amidst a rising nationalism, the BRICS Plus nations offer a solid platform with an array of development programs, institutions such as the New Development Bank NDB and the gravitas of BRICS Plus leadership globally and regionally.
The current message from the nationalist North is clear. This realpolitik and narrow nationalism is the new reality, and likely to be a core feature in the decade ahead. South Africa and Africa have no time to waste.
* Dr. Ashraf Patel is a Senior Research Associate at the Institute for Global Dialogue IGD, UNISA.
** The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.