Banks say they will not raise interest rates yet

Published Jun 3, 1998

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Despite the falling rand and interest rate jitters you don't need to worry about forking out more for your home loan or overdraft yet.

But there has been a dramatic about turn from 10 days ago when the banks were under pressure to reduce the rates at which they lend you money. At that stage there were good prospects of a one percent cut before mid-year and a further one percent before year-end.

Chris Stals, the Reserve Bank governor, this week clamped down on the supply of money, effectively forcing the banks to pay more for the money they borrow from the Reserve Bank to lend to you.

But banking analysts say interest rates will remain the same for the moment, and are expected to decrease in the medium term.

South African banks say they will cope with the sharp rise in official interest rates and allow markets to settle before deciding whether to increase their prime rates.

Treasurers and economists at the country's four major banks say they support the central bank's move as a short-term measure and that it will not prompt them to immediately bump up prime rates.

One of the analysts said the banks "will bleed for a week or two, but we can continue to look for some decline in the rates".

"Politically banks just are not in a position to raise rates, even if they wanted to," he said

This was confirmed by Danie Cronje, Absa chief executive. He said an increase in rates at this stage could result in many South African's being unable to meet their debt commitments. For this reason his bank would hold off increasing rates as long as possible.

Sandra Gordon, chief economist at Nedcor Investment Bank Asset Management, told the Syfrets Private Bank/Saturday Argus Investor's Club meeting that if the rates at which banks borrowed money stayed at their current high level for a few weeks, banks would have to raise the rates they charged customers, delaying the anticipated economic recovery next year.

"The feeling is perhaps the worst is over and the rand will begin to stabilise, ultimately encouraging money to start coming into the country again," she said.

Gordon said that the Reserve Bank was forced to step in to head off a speculative attack on the rand.

Political turmoil in Indonesia prompted foreign investors to reduce exposure to all emerging markets, including South Africa.

Until recently, the widening deficit in South Africa's current account (trade balance less interest, insurance and freight charges) has been offset by money coming in from overseas investors. At the same time, the easing of exchange controls is prompting an outflow of longer term money ­ making the economy increasingly reliant on foreign investment inflows.

Stals has said that economic fundamentals do not justify the rand's recent slide and he would like to see domestic interest rates fall.

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