Don't rush off on a spending spree in anticipation of interest rates falling and falling, and then staying down.
Craig Zaayman, of Absa Bank's Treasury Economics and Strategic Unit, says you can probably expect another rate cut towards the end of this year, but in his view this is only a 50 percent probability.
By the year end other factors will come into play that could push interest rates the other way.
High on his list of what will push interest rates up is inflation.
The recent drop in inflation will be arrested, he says.
The reason is that we are printing money and borrowing faster than we are increasing productivity.
The result: increased inflation by year end with a knock-on effect on interest rates.
Zaayman has other reasons for expecting upward pressure on interest rates by year end. These include:
* The run up to next year's general elections. "Jitters and nerves are bound to take hold of investors" as uncertainty creeps in with an outflow of foreign investment;
* Chris Stals, the Governor of the Reserve Bank, will probably step down when his term of office expires next year, which may also contribute to a capital outflow;
* The demutualisation of Sanlam and Old Mutual may put additional money in the hands of consumers, leading to increased spending; and
* Greater participation in the rand currency market by foreign banks "is bound to place undue pressure on the local unit as a result of the build-up of rand balances abroad".
The bottom line is an outflow of capital by the end of this year and particularly next year.
Foreign currency reserves will not be able to defend strong depreciation and interest rates will have to go up.
In the long term, pressure on inflation will continue, influenced by a number of factors from the Government's Gear programme to the introduction of a single European currency.