THE global governance system is in a tailspin. But more to the point, the re-emergence of the US President Donald Trump as the commander-in-chief of the world’s nuclear power has thrown Europe in a fix, a spot of bother.
The speed with which the change of guard in the White House has upended the former President Joe Biden’s globalist agenda, replacing it with Trump’s America-First policy, will wreak havoc well into the foreseeable future.
Having assumed office only on January 20, Trump’s track record for only one month makes the rest of the four-year office term feel and look like eternity.
Many expressions and adjectives have been used to describe Trump. They include disruptive, chaotic, authoritarian, et al. Looking with a naked eye, the road ahead looks oh so bumpy.
In this week alone, key European leaders visited Trump at the White House, attempting to sway the 45th and 47th US Presidents away from Europe’s subject of hate and disdain, that is Russia.
First, it was French President Emmanuel Macron who paid the visit to Trump, pleading for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s mercy. Three days later, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer arrived, just a couple of days after he addressed the UK parliament and told his nation that defence spending will be increased to 2.5% of the GDP.
Trump has publicly demanded that Europe increase its defence spending so that they cease to piggyback on the US, which they have been doing for years. In fact, speaking at his first cabinet meeting in Washington this week, the straight-talking US President said: “Europe was established to screw America.”
Starmer has been the most audible Zelenskyy supporter. Scared of Trump’s pace and direction of direct peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Starmer rushed to Washington to bed Trump to be a part of security guarantees for Ukraine in the aftermath of a peace deal.
The UK is prepared to send boots on the ground. So is France. But Trump would have none of it. Europe can send their troops to Ukraine, but should expect no US participation. As soon as Starmer left the White House, in came Zelenskyy himself, in person. His was not a feel-good state visit.
Trump wanted to parade him to the rest of the world as he signed a mineral deal as part of paying back the US for the $350 billion (about R6.6 trillion) the Biden administration gave to Kyiv with no apparent strings attached. Trump described the arrangement as nonsense, and described Biden as the worst president in US history.
Within one month of returning to the Oval Office, Trump activated peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, leaving Europe bewildered and amused as the first round of direct diplomatic exclusive talks between Moscow and Washington took place in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, leaving the EU out in the cold.
Veteran Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov said the talks were not so much about Ukraine, which was also visible by its absence. Instead, said Lavrov, the talks were intended to trigger active bilateral relations between the two nuclear powers that had not been on speaking terms over the last three years and had scaled down their diplomatic missions to the bare minimum.
As Ukraine’s president, supported by many in the EU, protested: “There can be no talks about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Fair point that. Europe also protested loudly, demanding to have a seat at the negotiating table. What is interesting is that both Moscow and Washington are amenable to the all-inclusive dialogue, which until Trump’s arrival had been elusive and, to put it bluntly, as far as Europe is concerned, even undesirable.
It has been Trump, to his credit, who has insisted that, at least on the basis of humanity, the senseless killing of thus far more than 1 million soldiers on either side of the conflict ought to come to an end.
The UK Prime Minister negotiated very hard with the US to provide the backstop for the anticipated UK and EU’s boots-on-ground. However, Trump would have none of it, saying first things first: let there be a peace deal before discussing other matters.
Primarily, Trump’s business side always shines through in his political work. Hauling Zelensky to the White House to sign the mineral deal, Trump was visibly excited about the potential economic spin-off from the deal. Thousands of US citizens would likely set up home in Ukraine as they pursued exploration of the rare earths that would be used to pay back the Biden-era “free lunch”.
Furthermore, Trump pays scant attention to the war-mongering language of Starmer, Macron, and other EU leaders who are stuck in Russophobia. Trump speaks peace-seeking language with little or no threats. He understands too well that every war is ended by negotiations for lasting peace and that such negotiations are ostensibly the first step before details on the way forward are spelled out.
As for Europe, they have to look at themselves in the mirror. At no stage did the EU collective make any tangible effort to engage with Moscow in any meaningful way. Public utterances of the EU leaders had been disparaging to Putin and the Russian Federation at large.
It was as if the desire to make right what was wrong never existed. No wonder the Kremlin had expressed concern that Nato’s provocative expansion eastward to Russia’s doorstep posed an existential threat. But then again, the arrogance of knowing that Big Brother Biden was fully with the war-mongering EU made matters only worse.
Europe, through the UK and France, wants the war climate to continue post-peace settlement under the guise of threatening Russia against future attacks on Ukraine. However, Europe knows too well that without the backing of the US and Trump himself, their “boots-on-the-ground” threats or plans will come to naught.
It is the US that Europe looks up to in order to back their warmongering. Such time has come to an end under the Trump administration. The international relations and global power relations have shifted to a point of no return.
The unleashing of 25% of tariffs on Europe from April 2 will give credence to this standpoint. Their collective economies will breathe with one nose. Their economies are already reeling from the boomerang effects of sanctions against Russia, where oil and cheap gas have been replaced by expensive alternatives from as far as the US itself.
Perhaps the unintended consequences of Trump’s hard stance toward Europe will be the inevitable sense of obligation to work towards self-sufficiency for the entire EU bloc. For now, he who pays the piper calls the tune.
* Abbey Makoe is Founder and Editor-in-Chief: Global South Media Network (gsmn.co.za).
** The views expressed are not those of Sunday Independent, Independent Media, or IOL.