The Western Cape is home to 7.2 million people and by the year 2040 it is estimated the population will increase to 9.4 million.
As the population grows, so will the pressure on infrastructure such as hospitals, schools and social development facilities.
Monday, July 11, was World Population Day, and with the recent census conducted, the figures indicated that the Western Cape is estimated to be over 7.2 million people, with 2.15 million households.
At present there are 3.57 million males and 3.65 million females, the figures expected to grow to over 4.7 million by 2040.
In 2011, the Census confirmed that the Western Cape was home to 5, 822, 734 people and 1.634000 households.
Mayor Geordin-Hill Lewis said in a recent survey done in conjunction with property agents, agents in the City said one in four properties were sold to someone moving to Cape Town for the first time.
“I expect a population explosion in Cape Town and the Western Cape in the next decade. As other municipalities and provinces in South Africa continue to fall behind on infrastructure investment and service delivery, more and more people will be heading to the Cape in search of a better life. This will, of course, result in population growth. The City is committed to ensuring that our infrastructure and services are able to keep up with this population growth.”
Helena Jacobs, director for Development Planning Intelligence Management and Research, said the migration of people also contributed to the number and also placed strain on infrastructure.
“From our unpublished research we can see that the major pull factors for migration into the province is employment, better living conditions, family and household, education and retirement.
“All of the above factors put pressure on municipalities and government as a whole to provide services, infrastructure and housing to keep up with the continued rapid urbanisation and population growth, which is why we as the Western Cape government continue to do research to better understand these trends.”
Co-director of the Institute for Life Course Health Development in the Department of Global Health at Stellenbosch University, Professor Mark Tomlinson, said the Western Cape government had the available time to prepare for sustainability.
“If you have a water problem and there are 5 million people, my response would be that any good mayor and Western Cape government would see that coming.
“It’s hard to speak about population without people thinking of panic, no food, no water, in the 1920s and 1930s it was impossible to feed more than 3 billion people in theory, and yet in 1920s, a German scientist discovered how to take nitrogen out of air to make fertiliser. That single invention, followed by people who did the green revolution on different ways to grow crops, added another 5 billion people.
“We are not saying technology solves everything. My response is that if the Western Cape government foresees 9 million people by 2040, and if we have a problem, then they didn’t start planning.
“It must not be seen as a panic or problem. In South Africa, 50% of all the food we produce we throw away. If you say there are 5 million people today, you can probably feed another 5 million on the food we waste.
“The problem is management and resources. We know it is coming, build the desolation plant, do not wait until 2040. Make sure where people are going to, where they are going to stay. Where do you need to build infrastructure such as schools? People do not see it as a planning issue but a panic issue.”
Joshua Chigome, spokesperson, the spokesperson for the MEC for Social Development, said a total of 770 847 persons over the age of 60 were in the Western Cape and there were over 2 million children between the age of 0 and 17.
“The total number of persons 60 years and older is projected to double to 1 447 070 by 2040. The consistent rise in the number of the elderly, especially women of higher ages, is a population trend that requires attention in strategic and budget planning processes due to additional pressure placed on health-care facilities and the need for other government services. In the younger age cohort, 0-4 years, there are approximately 583 728 children.
“Moreover, the age group 0-14-years remains the largest dependent age group. In the Western Cape, for every 100 economically active persons, there are 45 dependants, of which 35 fall within the 0-14-years cohort.
“The provincial Department of Social Development has implemented a series of measures over the years to ensure that services are available to the citizens of the province amid the continued rise in population.”
Anton Bredell, Western Cape Minister of Local Government, Environmental Affairs and Development Planning, said with World Population Day, people should also reflect on how population dynamics impact on our relationship with our natural environment.
“We are seeing a growth in population in the Western Cape of more than 100 000 people each year. In the past year, CapeNature added 33 352 hectares of land for conservation. Of this, 12 577ha are formally classified as protected areas.”
Karen Shippey, chief director for the department, said rapid population growth placed pressure on the environment.
“We know that during the Covid lockdown many people lost their employment and shelter, and this put people struggling with poverty in even more vulnerable positions.”
Millicent Merton of the Western Cape Education Department said there were five schools under construction and there were just under 1 500 public schools.
“We have 1 110 494 learners with 20 325 in special needs. We have 1 065 public primary schools and 390 public high schools. There are five schools under construction.”
Mark van der Heever of the Western Cape Health Department said as the population grew, they had three tertiary hospitals, 33 district hospitals, 16 regional and specialised hospitals, 192 clinics, 62 community day centres and 11 community health centres.